Based upon the reaction among the political chattering classes and the media echo chamber in which they live, you might think the election of a Republican to fill out the term of the late Ted Kennedy from Massachusetts is any one or even all of the following:
- A total repudiation of President Obama and everything he stands for;
- The complete and permanent triumph of the Republican Party and its “Tea Bag” wing (where were the marketers when that unfortunate name came up?);
- Proof that Americans don’t want healthcare reform; or
- Proof that the New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl next year.
OK, I made that last one up, but only to prove the point that a lot of silly “conclusions” are being drawn from a single event. In politics—and business—it is dangerous to pull insight out of a single data point. About all we can really say about the election in Massachusetts is that the Republican candidate ran a better campaign than the Democratic candidate, and anyone can win at least once tapping into voters’ anger and desire for “change.” If anyone should understand this last point, it’s President Obama and the Democrats.
A snap shot tells you what is happening at a single moment. A movie—which is simply a collection of snap shots—tells a story. And like a movie’s story, trends can only be discerned from multiple data points collected over time. In business, this means constantly communicating with and listening to your stakeholders. Doing so compiles valuable data and can help you discern an aberration from real trends that might require action. The point is you don’t know if you aren’t paying attention over time.
The Massachusetts election might prove to be everything the pundits are claiming it is (except maybe for that Super Bowl prediction), but to me, the more interesting and important Senate election in Massachusetts will be the normally scheduled one in 2012. If Scott Brown decides to run again and he wins, it would represent two wins by a Republican in a traditionally Democratic state. Now there’s a trend.
